Playoff Math: How Sporting KC can secure a berth and a home playoff game next Saturday

For the second straight weekend, Sporting KC's playoff celebrations were put on hold.

A 1-1 draw with Real Salt Lake on Sunday kept Sporting KC in second place, two points behind leaders FC Dallas and two points ahead of third-place LAFC. The tie wasn't enough to guarantee a spot in the Audi 2018 MLS Cup Playoffs, but it did inch the club even closer to the postseason.

Manager Peter Vermes' men will now prepare for Saturday's mouthwatering home tilt against Zlatan Ibrahimovic and the LA Galaxy, who enter the game two points below the playoff line. A limited number of tickets for the highly anticipated matchup, including standing-room only tickets, are available via SeatGeek.com with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. CT on FOX Sports Kansas City and FOX Sports Midwest.

Sporting KC's magic number for a playoff berth is 1

Simple math here: a win or a draw would guarantee Sporting KC its club-record eighth straight playoff appearance. That berth can also be secured regardless of Saturday's outcome, as PlayoffStatus.com points out, but only if Sporting KC gets help from elsewhere. More on that in just a minute, but first...

Sporting KC's magic number for a home playoff game is 6

Six points over the team's final four games would see Sporting KC host at least one game in the Audi 2018 MLS Cup Playoffs. The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will earn byes to the two-legged conference semifinals, playing away on Nov. 4 and hosting on Nov. 11. The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds will host the single-elimination Knockout Round on either Oct. 31 or Nov. 1.

With that in mind, let's hop into Saturday's playoff scenarios.

Sporting KC can clinch a playoff berth Saturday if...

1. Sporting KC beats or ties LA Galaxy (7:30pm), OR
2. Toronto FC beats or ties Vancouver (4pm), AND
   Real Salt Lake ties Portland (8:30pm)

Heading into Week 32, Sporting KC's best-case scenario is to clinch a top-four spot. This outcome would ensure that Children's Mercy Park hosts its first playoff match since the 2013 MLS Cup. In order for this to happen as early as next Saturday, Vermes' side must win and have Portland and RSL tie in a game that kicks off at 8:30 p.m. CT.

Sporting KC can clinch a top-four finish Saturday if...

1. Sporting KC beats LA Galaxy (7:30pm), AND
2. Real Salt Lake ties Portland (8:30pm)

Sporting KC now faces a challenging and decisive month of October, with all four remaining opponents battling for playoff position. Saturday's home date with the seventh-place Galaxy is followed by a two-game road trip against eighth-place Vancouver (Oct. 17) and leaders FC Dallas (Oct. 21). Sporting KC will close out the season on Oct. 28 with a gargantuan Decision Day showdown versus LAFC.

Looking at the Western Conference table below, FC Dallas is the only team that has punched its postseason ticket. Colorado and San Jose are mathematically eliminated, while Minnesota and Houston are all but assured the same fate.

Western Conference Standings (as of Oct. 1, 2018)